Sofema Aviation Services (SAS) www.sassofia.com Considers the Role of EASA ERCS – Risk Classification compliant with Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2020/2034 of 6 October 2020 Supplementing Regulation (EU) No 376/2014.
Introduction
Effective 1 January 2021 the ERCS is a required process to manage operational risk assessment. (unless alternative means of compliance are agreed with the Relevant European Competent Authority)
Terminology used to Support this Regulation
‘European risk classification scheme’ or ‘ERCS’
• The methodology applied for the assessment of the risk posed by an occurrence to civil aviation in the form of a safety risk score.
‘ERCS matrix’
• A grid made up of the variables described which serves for the illustrative representation of the safety risk score.
‘Safety Risk Score’
• Means the result of the risk classification of an occurrence by combining the values of the variables described.
‘High-Risk Area’
• An area where an aircraft impact would cause numerous injuries, result in a high number of fatalities, or both because of the nature of the activities in that area, such as nuclear or chemical plants.
‘Populated Area’
• An area with clustered or scattered buildings and a permanent human population, such as city, settlement, town, or village;
‘Life-Changing Injury’ means an injury reducing the person’s quality of life in regard to reduced mobility or reduced cognitive or physical ability in daily life.
ERCS Methodology
The ERCS shall be based on the ERCS matrix composed of the following two variables:
• Severity: identification of the worst likely accident outcome that would have resulted in the occurrence under assessment had escalated into an accident;
• Probability: identification of the likelihood of the occurrence under assessment to escalate into the worst likely accident outcome.
Key Risk Areas
EASA has identified the following key risk areas:
• Airborne collision: a collision between aircraft while both aircraft are airborne; or between aircraft and other airborne objects (excluding birds and wildlife).
• Aircraft upset: an undesired aircraft state characterized by unintentional divergences from parameters normally experienced during operations, which might ultimately lead to an uncontrolled impact with terrain.
• Collision on the runway: a collision between an aircraft and another object (other aircraft, vehicles, etc.) or person that occurs on a runway of an aerodrome or other predesignated landing area. It does not include collisions with birds or wildlife.
• Excursion: an occurrence when an aircraft leaves the runway or movement area of an aerodrome or landing surface of any other predesignated landing area, without getting airborne.
o It includes high-impact vertical landings for rotorcraft or vertical take-off and landing aircraft and balloons or airships; e. fire, smoke, and pressurization:
o An occurrence involving cases of fire, smoke, fumes, or pressurization situations that may become incompatible with human life.
o This includes occurrences involving fire, smoke, or fumes affecting any part of an aircraft, in-flight or on the ground, which is not the result of impact or malicious acts.
• Ground damage: damage to aircraft induced by operation of aircraft on ground on any other ground area than a runway or predesignated landing area, as well as damage during maintenance.
• Obstacle collision in flight: collision between an airborne aircraft and obstacles rising from the surface of the earth.
o Obstacles include tall buildings, trees, power cables, telegraph wires, and antennae as well as tethered objects.
• Terrain collision: an occurrence where an airborne aircraft collides with terrain, without indication that the flight crew was unable to control the aircraft.
o It includes instances when the flight crew is affected by visual illusions or a degraded visual environment.
• Other injuries: an occurrence where fatal or non-fatal injuries have been inflicted, which cannot be attributed to any other key risk area.
• Security: an act of unlawful interference against civil aviation.
o It includes all incidents and breaches related to surveillance and protection,
o access control,
o screening,
o implementation of security controls and any other acts intended to cause malicious or wanton destruction of aircraft and property,
o endangering or resulting in unlawful interference with civil aviation and its facilities.
o Includes both physical and cyber security events.
Loss of Life Categorization
• More than 100 possible fatalities
o Large A/C over 100 Pax.
o Equivalent size aircraft for cargo.
o One aircraft of any type in a high-risk or heavily populated area.
o Any situation, any type of aircraft possibility over 100 fatalities.
• Between 20 to 100 possible fatalities
o Medium certified aircraft with 20 to100 pax.
o Equivalent size aircraft for cargo.
o Any situation where 20 to 100 fatalities may be possible.
• Between 2 to 19 possible fatalities:
o One small A/C up to 19 Pax.
o Equivalent size aircraft for cargo.
o Any situation where 2 to 19 fatalities may be possible.
• 1 possible fatality – (A/C not EASA certified)
o Any situation where a single fatality may be possible.
• 0 possible fatalities – personal injuries only
o regardless of the number of minor and serious.
Measure of Severity
The purpose of the ERCS barrier model is to assess the effectiveness (that is the number and the strength) of the barriers which were remaining between the actual occurrence and the worst likely accident outcome.
• Ultimately, the ERCS barrier model shall determine how close the occurrence under assessment has been to the potential accident.
Considering the Applicable Barrier
Calculation
Calculation: The probability of the potential accident outcome is the numerical value resulting from the following steps.
• A sum of all the barrier weights of all the assessed barriers that were scored either:
o ‘Stopped’,
o ‘Remaining known’ or
o ‘Remaining assumed’.
Note – The ‘Failed’ and ‘Not Applicable’ barriers shall not be counted for the final score, as those barriers could not have prevented the accident.
Scoring of the Safety Risk within the ERCS Matrix
The safety risk score is a two-digit value where:
• The first digit corresponds to the alphabetic value resulting from the calculation of the severity of the occurrence (severity score A to X).
• The second digit represents the numerical value from the calculation of the corresponding score of the occurrence (0 to 9).
The safety risk score shall be put into the ERCS matrix. For each given safety risk score there is also a numerical equivalent score for aggregation and analysis purposes which is explained below under ‘Numerical equivalent score’.
Building an ERC
Red XO, X1, X2, S0, S1, MO, M1, I0 – High Risk
Yellow X3 X4 S3, S4, M2, M3, I1, I2, E0, E1 – Elevated Risk (Intermediate)
Green X5 to X9, S5 to S9, M4 to M9, I3 to I9, E2 to E9 – Low Risk
Numerical equivalent score: Each ERCS score is assigned a corresponding numerical value of risk magnitude to facilitate the aggregation and numerical analysis of multiple occurrences with an ERCS score:
Next Steps
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Air Navigation, aviation, aviation safety, EASA, ERCS, European Safety Risk, European Safety Risk Classification, Regulation (EU) 2020/2034, Regulation (EU) No 376/2014, Risk Classification, Risk Management, Safety Risk, Safety Risk Management, SAS blogs
